Global Economy Watch - January 2017

Predictions for 2017: globalisation takes a backseat

As we enter 2017, many businesses will begin planning for the year ahead, wondering what’s in store for the global economy this year. We believe that there will be three main overarching themes. Firstly, globalisation will continue to take a backseat. The resurgence of economic nationalism in some parts of the world will put World Trade Organisation rules to the test, as well as fuelling geopolitical uncertainty regarding upcoming elections in Europe this year. To this end, our second theme considers that politics will drive uncertainty and economics this year. And thirdly, we think that US monetary policy will move back towards normality, with a gradual monetary tightening over the year.